Verifiable backtest analytics
The preview documents how public Polymarket activity is replayed through fixed strategy definitions over the same 90 day window.
Public methodology preview for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategy research
Verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies.
Polymarket Backtest is opening its first public product surface as a methodology preview: benchmark framing, reproducibility notes, and disclosure-first limits before stronger beta asks. Paid access is planned around USDC on Polygon / Base - no fiat rail.
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only. Not affiliated with Polymarket.
Methodology preview
90 day window
Historical metrics
Initial capital$1,000
Closed positions58
Pattern C PnL$2,358.68
Benchmark distribution
Disclosure checks
Lookback90d
Universefixed
Bait filterflag
Future claimnone
Reproducible pipeline
1. IngestPublic Polymarket data
2. NormalizeShared schema and prices
3. CompareFive patterns + benchmarks
4. DiscloseLimits, assumptions, caveats
What it is
Preview the backtest method before the beta ask.
Specula and PolyTraderBot show the appeal of smart-wallet tools. Polymarket Backtest focuses on the missing verification layer: historical baselines, benchmark context, reproducibility, and disclosure-first methodology.
Strategy returns with context
Frame Pattern A through Pattern E2 against Buy-and-Hold + Random copy benchmarks, including filter behavior that can reduce returns.
Disclosure-first analysis
Keep future-performance caveats, limited wallet universes, bait-wallet risk, and lookback constraints visible as part of the product surface.
Public surface before beta
Closed beta opens after the public methodology preview. Paid tiers are planned around USDC on Polygon / Base; no fiat rail planned.
Methodology
Make the assumptions inspectable.
The next public surface is a methodology preview. Historical analytics should show the data path, benchmark framing, comparison window, reproducibility notes, and caveats before it shows any headline number.
analysis.yml
read-only
window: 90_days
initial_capital: 1000_usd
source: public_polymarket_data
mode: verifiable_backtest_analytics
benchmarks:
- Buy-and-Hold
- Random copy
flagship:
pattern: C
pnl_usd: 2358.68
sharpe: 3.9977
disclosures:
future_performance: required
wallet_universe: limited
bait_wallet_risk: flagged
execution: none
Same window, same schema
Pattern A/B/C/D/E2 values use the same 90 day period and initial_capital = $1,000.
Benchmarks before claims
Buy-and-Hold and Random copy sit beside Pattern A/B/C/D/E2 so a result is read in context.
Disclosure is part of the preview
The service is not affiliated with Polymarket, Specula, PolyTraderBot, or any prediction-market venue.
Who it is for
Polymarket-native crypto users who want evidence, not a pitch.
The dashboard is intentionally narrow: historical, methodological, USDC-native, and inspectable.
Researchers
Explore public prediction-market behavior with reproducible windows and transparent assumptions.
Journalists
Use descriptive evidence and caveats when covering wallet behavior and market activity.
Polymarket power users
Compare historical strategy returns without receiving advice, custody, execution, or predictions.
Scope
Clear boundaries are part of the product.
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only.
No custody - funds remain in your wallet.
All Polymarket positions and balances stay in the user's own smart-contract wallet on Polygon / Base. Polymarket Backtest never holds, routes, or custodies user funds.
No advice - outputs are descriptive analytics.
Backtest results show what five canonical copy strategies would have returned over the last 90 days. They are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell, copy, trade, or participate.
Educational use only.
Polymarket Backtest is research-grade analytics software for analysts, researchers, journalists, and Polymarket-native crypto users who want verifiable historical baselines.
Not a prediction service.
We do not forecast outcomes or tell users what will happen in any market. Backtest replays past data - it does not predict future events.
Not a trading or wagering venue.
We do not route orders, provide execution, hold funds, or operate markets. Paid tiers (M3 launch onwards) settle in USDC on Polygon / Base directly to the project's receiving wallet, with no intermediary fiat rail.
Not affiliated with Polymarket.
We are an independent third-party analytics provider, not endorsed by or partnered with Polymarket.
Methodology preview
Follow the public methodology preview.
Methodology write-ups and reproducibility notes publish through Paragraph as the preview moves from benchmark framing to disclosure checks.
Closed beta opens after the public methodology preview.
Planned payment rail: USDC on Polygon / Base; no fiat rail planned. Pro $30-50 USDC/mo and Power $100-200 USDC/mo are evaluation candidates; final tiers require confirmation.
Join the early-access listMethodology
Five canonical strategy baselines, reproducible.
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only.
| Pattern | 90-day P&L | Sharpe | Max Drawdown | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A — top-10 wallet baseline | $1,279.65 | 4.4975 | $156.31 | 57.45% |
| B — prob 0.2-0.8 filter | $265.42 | 2.7978 | $62.94 | 51.32% |
| C — top-3 + proportional 5% | $2,358.68 | 3.9977 | $417.87 | 63.79% |
| D — category blacklist (News+Politics) | $825.19 | 3.6748 | $168.29 | 51.56% |
| E — hold to resolution | $1,223.24 | 4.2981 | $153.52 | 55.56% |
$1,000 initial capital, 90-day Polymarket V1 historical window, 15-wallet methodology cohort. Descriptive analytics, not a recommendation.
Sample backtest
One real wallet, 90 days, fully reproducible.
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only.
A real public Polymarket smart wallet
(0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418)
run through the copy-strategy engine over a 90-day window (89.96 days, 14 closed positions, $1,000 notional):
| Net P&L | +$1.04 (+0.104%) |
| Sharpe | 1.327 |
| Sortino | 2.610 |
| Max drawdown | 0.098% |
| Win rate | 92.86% (13 of 14 closed) |
| Calmar | 4.30 |
A small, honest sample window — the point is not the size of the return but that every number here is reproducible from public on-chain data. Past backtest performance does not guarantee future results.
See Scope for full disclosures.
Provider
Provider and contact.
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only. Terms of Service and Privacy Policy are planned for publication before M3 launch.
- Operator
- Independent sole proprietor. Business address and phone number are disclosed without delay on request, in writing or by email.
- Contact
- [email protected]
- Pricing
- USDC-denominated tiers. Pro $30-50 USDC/mo and Power $100-200 USDC/mo are evaluation candidates; final tiers require confirmation.
- Additional fees
- Polygon / Base gas fees may be borne by the customer depending on the payment route.
- Payment
- USDC on Polygon / Base; no fiat rail planned.
- Service delivery
- Closed beta access is provided after invitation and onboarding.
- Cancellation and refunds
- Digital service cancellation and refund terms are defined in the Terms of Service before M3 launch.
Closed beta
Closed-beta waiting list for the paid tier.
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only. Closed beta opens after the public methodology preview. Planned payment rail: USDC on Polygon / Base; no fiat rail planned. Pro $30-50 USDC/mo and Power $100-200 USDC/mo are evaluation candidates; final tiers require confirmation.
Join the early-access list
See Scope for full disclosures and boundaries.